(February 2011) 2011 AESOP PhD workshop application - abstract submision

2011 AESOP PhD workshop application - abstract submision image

This is application form and abstract submission for 2011 AESOP PhD Workshop.

 Abstract:

The research is focused on probable impacts of Peak Oil on spatial/urban structure. Peak Oil is amongst major challenges of the near future as crude oil is the single most important source of energy. The goal of the research is to estimate the areas with probably most severe short-term impacts and areas which may in relative terms benefit from the increasing price of fossil fuels. The research is focused on the scale of region and limited to the Czech Republic and is concerned only with spatial impacts not considering substantial changes in the organization of the society (e. g. immediate collapse scenarios which seem neither likely nor predictable).


Impacts on transportation seem the most relevant for changes of spatial structure in the short run. Personal transportation and specifically commuting is among major factors for localization of activities on regional scale. It also might be affected earlier in the future as European residents spend about 10 - 15 percent of available personal income on personal transportation compared to the share of several percents of the price of transported cargo (TRANSvisions report states 80 percents of freight transportation being not price sensitive). The analysis of the interdependence of mobility and accesibility seems the most appropriate for the analysis of probable impacts. The preliminary analysis of impact of price turbulence on population potential in the Czech Republic suggests the outskirts of suburbanisation zone will be the losers while the regional centres except Prague region might be the winners in relative comparison.


Other important factors will be considered in further research such as impacts on manufacturing and agriculture, changes in technology etc. These factors will be considered in the form of different scenarios of future development.